How the conference title odds have changed over the first month of the season

Just two of the Power Five teams that opened the 2022 college football season as the favorites in their conferences still have that status after the first four weeks of the season. And there are a couple of conferences that are wide open according to oddsmakers.

With October just days away, here’s a look at how the conference title odds have shifted over the first third of the season. Now may be your opportunity to get some good betting value ahead of some Pivotal games on Saturday.

acc

It’s still Clemson and everyone else in the ACC. The Tigers were -145 to win the conference ahead of the season and are now -165 after a 4-0 start and a win over Wake Forest. NC State has taken over as the No. 2 favorite at +600 while Miami is at +700 despite being 2-2 with losses to Texas A&M and Middle Tennessee State.

Florida State has made a huge jump from +3000 to +750. The Seminoles are ranked ahead of a Showdown with the Demon Deacons in Week 5. Wake Forest’s odds have gotten slightly better at +4000 despite the Clemson loss because of the return of QB Sam Hartman.

With Clemson facing NC State and that Wake Forest game against FSU on Saturday, you should go ahead and make a bet now if you like one of those four teams Atlantic division teams to win the conference and are confident in a win in Week 5. Otherwise your odds are going to get worse after the game.

  • Clemson (-165)

  • NC State (+600)

  • Miami (+700)

  • Florida State (+750)

  • Pittsburgh (+1000)

  • North Carolina (+1600)

  • Wake Forest (+4000)

  • Syracuse (+4000)

  • Virginia Tech (+10000)

  • Duke (+10000)

  • Louisville (+20000)

  • Virginia (+20000)

  • Boston College (+50000)

  • Georgia Tech (+50000)

Clemson is the No. 5 teams in the college football AP Top 25. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)

Big Ten

The Big Ten Winner is very likely coming from the conference’s East division.

The top three favorites to win the division are from the East and Ohio State is the most overwhelming conference favorite among all the Power Five conferences. The Buckeyes are at -250 to win the Big Ten after opening the season at -225. Michigan is at +500 and the No. 2 favourites. Remember, the Wolverines play the Buckeyes in Columbus this season.

Penn State is the No. 3 favorite at +800 after a 4-0 start. Minnesota is the top team from the West at +850 after a messy start for the other teams in that division. Wisconsin has dropped to +4000 from +1200 ahead of Week 1.

Two other teams have seen their odds crater. Nebraska was at +1800 ahead of the season and is now at +40000 following a tumultuous start. Michigan State has those same odds after being at +2500 ahead of Week 1.

  • Ohio State (-250)

  • Michigan (+500)

  • Penn State (+800)

  • Minnesota (+850)

  • Wisconsin (+4000)

  • Iowa (+5000)

  • Maryland (+8000)

  • Purdue (+11000)

  • Illinois (+12000)

  • Indiana (+20000)

  • Michigan State (+40000)

  • Nebraska (+40000)

  • Northwestern (+50000)

COLUMBUS, OH - SEPTEMBER 24: Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback CJ Stroud (7) throws a pass during the first quarter of the college football game between the Wisconsin Badgers and Ohio State Buckeyes on September 24, 2022, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH.  (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

COLUMBUS, OH – SEPTEMBER 24: Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback CJ Stroud (7) throws a pass during the first quarter of the college football game between the Wisconsin Badgers and Ohio State Buckeyes on September 24, 2022, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Big 12

The Big 12 is the most wide-open conference in college football so far thanks to Kansas State’s upset of Oklahoma in Week 4.

There are now five teams in the Big 12 that have odds of +600 or better to win the conference and no one has odds of better than +320 to win. Oklahoma entered the season at +200 to win the Big 12 and is now at +400 after its loss to the Wildcats.

Baylor has taken over the mantle as the favorite in the conference at +320 and has a huge game on Saturday against Oklahoma State in a rematch of the 2021 Big 12 title game. The Cowboys are also at +400 to win the conference and are the only team among the top five that’s currently undefeated.

Kansas State is the No. 2 favorite to win the conference at +375. The Wildcats lost to Tulane in Week 3 ahead of that Oklahoma loss. Texas is still hanging around at +600 despite a 2-2 start. The Longhorns lost on the road in overtime in Week 4 against Texas Tech.

Kansas, meanwhile, is still getting no respect from oddsmakers. The 4-0 Jayhawks are home underdogs to Iowa State on Saturday and both of those teams are at +4000 to win the conference. Only West Virginia has Worse odds.

  • Baylor (+320)

  • Kansas State (+375)

  • Oklahoma (+400)

  • Oklahoma State (+400)

  • Texas (+600)

  • TCU (+1000)

  • Texas Tech (+1800)

  • Iowa State (+4000)

  • Kansas (+4000)

  • West Virginia (+5000)

Baylor linebacker Dillon Doyle (5) gets set for a play during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Iowa State, Saturday, Sept.  24, 2022, in Ames, Iowa.  Baylor won 31-24.  (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Baylor linebacker Dillon Doyle (5) gets set for a play during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Iowa State, Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022, in Ames, Iowa. Baylor won 31-24. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Pac-12

The Pac-12 has a fair amount of parity at the top of the conference too. Four teams have odds of +550 or better to make it to the title game.

Utah is the favorite at +160 after a Week 1 loss to Florida. The Utes have looked like the dominant team we were expecting to see in 2022 after that Florida game. USC is at +180 to win the conference after opening as a slight favorite. The Trojans have an unsustainable +14 turnover margin through four games and survived a scare at Oregon State in Week 4.

Oregon is at +400 after a comeback win at Washington State in Week 4. The Ducks have scored wins over the Cougars from Washington State and BYU in the last two weeks.

Washington is at +550 to win the Pac-12 after a hot start. Washington opened the season at +1600 following a 4-8 disaster of a season in 2021.

Remember, the Pac-12 determines its title game participants like the Big 12. There are no more divisions and the top two teams in the conference will play each other in the conference title game.

Utah head Coach Kyle Whittingham during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Arizona State, Saturday, Sept.  24, 2022, in Tempe, Ariz.  (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

Utah head Coach Kyle Whittingham during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Arizona State, Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022, in Tempe, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

SEC

There’s still a team with better than even odds to win the SEC. And it’s not Alabama.

The Crimson Tide were -140 to win the conference ahead of the season and have been passed by Georgia as the conference favorite. Georgia, which was at +150 ahead of the season, is now at -110 to win the conference following a dominant start to the season and a leap over Alabama for the No. 1 spot in the AP Top 25.

Alabama is now at +105 — a great return if you’re still very confident in the No. 2 Crimson Tide’s chances of winning the conference again. Remember, Alabama won the SEC in 2021 before Georgia won the national title.

There’s no one else in the conference that can legitimately claim to be a contender. Tennessee is the No. 3 favorite at +2200 while Texas A&M is at +2500.

Georgia running back Kenny McIntosh (6) tries to escape from Kent State linebacker Khalib Johns (32) in the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept.  24, 2022, in Athens, Ga.  (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Georgia running back Kenny McIntosh (6) tries to escape from Kent State linebacker Khalib Johns (32) in the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022, in Athens, Ga. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button