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If you’re new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I’m John Brubaker. I’ve been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I’ve created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I’ll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, May 15, 2022. I’m continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I’ll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven’t already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let’s break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia’s 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 20-24-1, -8.22 units
- Sides: 15-15, -5.55 units
- Totals: 4-9-1, -3.37 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
- Notes: Slightly better day again, and despite going 2-0 on the article plays, I managed to get the books back by grabbing Hunter Renfroe’s HR prop at +540 for 0.2 units and the Angels late night at -164 for a unit. The Astros’ pitching staff just did not show up last night, and the Yankees being shut out through five innings by Dallas Keuchel was frustrating. Nevertheless, we’re back at it today.
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
O / U: 8 | Moneyline: ATL -115
SD: Joe Musgrove | ATL: Kyle Wright
I’ll head to Atlanta for the first play of the day as the Padres and Braves close out their series, a NRFI. The Padres will send Joe Musgrove to the mound today, a guy who held the Braves scoreless in San Diego back on April 14. He’s held opposing lineups scoreless in two of three starts on the road, and four of six overall. He’ll take on a Braves lineup that has been held scoreless in the first inning in 14 of 20 games (70%) at home, and 26 of 34 games (76.47%) overall.
On the other side of the matchup, the Braves will send Kyle Wright to the mound. Kyle Wright cashed a NRFI bet against the Padres back on April 15, and has been great at keeping runs off the board in the first inning this season. He’s held opponents scoreless in five of six starts overall, including all four of his starts at home. The Padres have struggled to score in the first on the road, scoring in just four of 17 games on the road, and in just 23 of 33 games (69.7%) overall.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the NRFI at -112 in this game, good for 52.83% implied odds. My model gives the NRFI a 63.64% chance of hitting, so we’re getting great value here.
Pick: NRFI (-112) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins
O / U: 7 | Moneyline: MIA +136
MIL: Brandon Woodruff | MIA: Elieser Hernandez
We’ll head to the Vice City for the second play of the afternoon. As the total indicates, Vegas is expecting a pitcher’s duel in this one. The Brewers will send Brandon Woodruff (3-2, 5.97 ERA) to the mound. Woodruff has certainly had an up and down year, but my model gives him a 43.97 rating. He has a projected 3.93 xFIP in this matchup with a 25.01% strikeout rate. The Marlins have a projected .462 wOBA + ISO and just a 27.33% hard contact rate in this one. The Brewers are 4-2 behind Woodruff this season, and I expect them to be 5-2 after today.
On the other side, the Marlins will send Elieser Hernandez (2-2, 6.37 ERA) to the mound. The model gives him just a 24.05 rating in this one, giving the Brewers a massive pitching advantage in this one. Hernandez projects to have a 4.50 xFIP and just a 17.14% strikeout rate in this game. I’m projecting the Brewers’ offense to come alive tonight, with a projected .524 wOBA + ISO and a 33.39% hard contact rate. The Marlins are just 3-3 behind Hernandez this year, and the Brewers should make that 3-4.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Brewers at -164, good for 62.12% implied odds. The model gives them a 66.32% chance of winning this game, by a final score of 5.23-3.97. Despite losing yesterday, the Brewers have dominated the matchup between these two teams, winning nine of the last 14 matchups overall and seven of the last nine matchups in Miami. All indicators are pointing in the Brewers in this one, so I’ll eat the chalk and take the road favorite.
Pick: Brewers Money Line (-164) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Thursday!
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