Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! We had ourselves another 1-1 day yesterday in the article, finishing 3-3 total including my Twitter plays. Make sure you’re following my Twitter, as I can not guarantee that I’ll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We’re happy you’re here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you’re new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I’m John Brubaker. I’ve been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I’ve created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I’ll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Saturday, April 23, 2022. I’m continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I’ll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven’t already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let’s break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia’s 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 10-9-1, -1.84 units
- Sides: 7-4, +1.94 units
- Totals: 2-5-1, -3.78 units
- Notes: The Cardinals took care of business despite a late-inning sweat. However, another brutal blow with the Miami / Atlanta NRFI. Trevor Rogers tried to pick off Matt Olson at second base, who most likely would never steal third, allowing him to get to third and later score on a Marcell Ozuna fielder’s choice. Tough one to swallow there, but once again there’s nothing anyone can do about it so we take it to the chin and move on today.
Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics
O / U: 7.5 | Moneyline: OAK -134
TEX: Martin Perez | OAK: Frankie Montas
I’ll start today’s slate off out in one of the earlier games, as the Rangers and Athletics meet up once again in Oakland today. Oakland has been pretty solid for us thus far into the season. They’ll send their ace Frankie Montas to the mound. Montas is making his fourth start of the season, going 2-1 with a 3.63 ERA and a 2.60 xFIP through his first three outings. His dominant showings, particularly in his last two starts, earn him a 71.82 rating in my model.
On the other side of the matchup, we have Martin Perez making his third start of the year. Perez comes into this one 0-2, along with a 6.75 ERA and 4.54 xFIP. With numerous A’s still on the COVID IL, their lineup doesn’t offer much resistance. However, they still manage to have an OPS of .691 (13th) and a wRC + of 110 (12th) against lefties. Martin Perez grades out to a 65.7 rating on my model.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Athletics at -134 right now, good for 57.27% implied odds. My model gives the A’s a 62.09% chance of winning this game. The A’s are 4-0 in Montas’s last four home starts, as well as 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 0-5 in Martin Perez’s last five starts where their opponent allows five or more runs per game, and are 0-7 in Perez’s last seven starts after they had scored five or more runs in their last game. With Montas on the mound and the A’s solid ability to hit southpaws, I like the value in Oakland.
Pick: Oakland Athletics Money Line (-134) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners
O / U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SEA -156
KC: Kris Bubic | SEA: Matt Brash
From a mid-afternoon game to the latest start on the slate, I’ll be looking at the Royals and Mariners matchup. The Mariners will be sending rookie Matt Brash to the mound to make his third start of the season. Brash has been electric in his first two MLB starts, going 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 3.86 xFIP against the White Sox and Astros, respectively. He’s been “thrown into the fire” against two of the best teams in the AL, and now he takes on a less explosive offense in Kansas City.
Kris Bubic takes the mound for the Royals, after a 0-1 start to the season. Bubic looked relatively sharp in his last start but really struggled in his first outing against Cleveland, leaving him with an ERA of 10.80 and an xFIP of 8.43. I say relatively sharp when referring to his start against Detroit last Saturday, considering he walked six batters in just 4.1 innings. He’ll take on the Mariners offense today who come into this one with an OPS of .720 (10th) and a wRC + of 126 (8th).
FanDuel Sportsbook has this Mariners line at -156, good for 60.94%. This play actually won’t be “+ EV”, as my model gives the Mariners just a 55.78% chance of winning this game. I conclude that this has to do with Brash and that there is not enough data on him yet. With that said, though, the Mariners are 4-1 in their last five meetings with Kansas City, and I really like Matt Brash to continue on and be an elite starter in this league. I like the value on the Mariners despite the model not being as high on them as I am.
Pick: Seattle Mariners Money Line (-156) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers! Stay tuned for more plays throughout the day!
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